Wwdc 2019 prediction11/7/2023 The main driver of this will be the fact that the advertisers who were bidding high CPIs on that traffic, in the hope of finding one or two high-value payers that pay for all of the other wasted impressions, will dissipate. I believe this year will be the year that we truly see a decline in Hyper-casual. This will lead to a general increase in the quality of creative that we see and a reduction in the “Data only” focus that the majority of UA teams have. The above privacy changes will, in my opinion, result in the pendulum swinging back to somewhere between product marketing and performance marketing. Google already believes that GAID is privacy compliant, and given that they are an ad network at heart, they have much more skin in the game when considering the impacts to their revenue.ĭata is a lagging indicator, and as such it has led to a set of high-iteration, low-value behaviors in UA. I do not believe that Google will make privacy-related changes to the extent that Apple has. My bet is Facebook wins by owning or effectively owning conversion values through a bridge to their internal data set. This will result in Facebook, MMPs, and developers contesting who decides the schema of conversion values. Ultimately the owner of the conversion value will dictate where the majority of UA spend on iOS goes. We already know the format of the SKAdNetwork changes to some extent, but the ramifications of those changes will be seen throughout the year.įirstly, I believe that that will be an arms race for the ownership of conversion values. Daniel Barnes, COO & Head of Platform (NSP) at N3TWORK INC.Ģ021 will be dominated by the privacy-focused changes initially from Apple and then maybe from Google. But if the degree to which 2020 has progressed through a series of anxiety-inducing announcements continues unabated, 2021 certainly promises to be lively. Perhaps the lack of clarity around how the mobile advertising ecosystem will evolve in 2021 renders a post like this even more necessary. Every player in the ecosystem has been put into a defensive posture and sits on far less stable ground than they did at this point last year. Apple’s announcement at WWDC that it will deprecate the IDFA and introduce the App Tracking Transparency framework was foreseeable I presented a hypothetical chain of events catalyzed by IDFA deprecation back in February, and frankly, I had expected the IDFA to be deprecated at WWDC 2019.īut 2021 is different. I considered not publishing a predictions post this year because 2021 feels fundamentally unpredictable. Part two will be published next Monday, December 28. Note: this is the first part of a two-part prediction series. Last year’s predictions post: 2020 predictions for mobile marketing.
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